Eight key members of the OPEC+ alliance on Monday agreed to begin a gradual increase in oil production from April, citing a steady global economic outlook and what they described as “healthy market fundamentals”.
In a virtual meeting, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman reviewed global supply and demand conditions before deciding to start unwinding part of their additional voluntary production cuts first announced in April 2023.
The countries agreed on a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April 2026, marking the first step in easing a 1.65 million bpd voluntary reduction introduced nearly three years ago.
In a statement issued after the talks, the group said low oil inventories and stable economic prospects justified a cautious return of supply to the market.
Recall that Nigeria failed to meet its crude oil production quota as set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
The country produced an average of 1.401 million barrels of crude oil per day, below the stipulated OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels daily for member countries
The 1.65 million bpd cut, announced in April 2023, was introduced alongside a separate 2.2 million bpd voluntary reduction unveiled in November 2023 as part of broader efforts by the OPEC+ alliance to stabilise prices amid economic uncertainty and fluctuating demand.
The eight producers stressed that the 1.65 million bpd could be restored “in part or in full” depending on evolving market conditions, and reiterated their readiness to pause or reverse the unwinding if necessary.
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions,” the statement said, adding that flexibility would remain central to the group’s strategy.
The move signals confidence among the core OPEC+ members that supply constraints have successfully supported prices while preventing excessive stockpiling. Analysts note that Brent crude prices have remained relatively firm in recent months, supported by disciplined output management and resilient Asian demand.
However, the producers underscored that the adjustment does not mark a full return to pre-cut production levels. They reaffirmed their commitment to the 2022 Declaration of Cooperation, the framework binding OPEC members and non-OPEC allies such as Russia, and said compliance would continue to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
The group also confirmed that countries which have overproduced since January 2024 would fully compensate for excess output. Compensation plans are expected to be reviewed monthly.
OPEC+, which accounts for roughly 40 percent of global crude supply, has repeatedly adjusted output since the Covid-19 pandemic in response to demand shocks, geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.
The eight countries will hold monthly meetings to assess market developments, conformity and compensation levels, with their next gathering scheduled for April 5, 2026.
Energy markets will now watch closely whether the phased increase marks the beginning of a sustained production recovery or remains a tentative step contingent on global economic stability.
