Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to edge up to 15.24 per cent in March, indicating a modest uptick in prices despite the sustained disinflation recorded in recent months.
Analysts at Cowry Asset Management Limited said the anticipated increase reflects lingering price pressures within the economy, even as underlying conditions continue to support a relatively stable inflation outlook in the near term.
According to the firm, improvements in foreign exchange stability, slightly lower energy costs and the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics are expected to sustain the downward trajectory in year-on-year inflation.
However, recent data indicate a rebound in month-on-month inflation, particularly driven by rising food prices, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain. These pressures are largely attributed to supply challenges and seasonal factors affecting key food items across the country.
Analysts further noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up global oil prices, translating into higher petrol prices domestically.
The increase in fuel costs has raised transportation, logistics and energy expenses, thereby increasing the cost of moving goods from farms and production centres to markets and consumers.
Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria’s headline inflation eased further to 15.06 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, down slightly from 15.1 per cent recorded in January, representing a 0.04 percentage-point decline.
This marks the eleventh consecutive month of disinflation and the lowest level recorded since late 2021, reflecting improved foreign exchange stability, easing energy costs and favourable base effects following the CPI rebasing exercise conducted in 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, however, headline inflation rose to 2.01 per cent in February 2026, representing a 4.89 percentage-point increase compared with -2.88 per cent recorded in January, indicating a faster pace of increase in the general price level within the period. Much of the uptick was driven by the food basket, which remains the most heavily weighted component of Nigeria’s inflation structure.
Compared with 26.27 per cent recorded in February 2025, the current inflation rate of 15.06 per cent represents a significant 11.21 percentage-point decline, underscoring the strength of the disinflation trend over the past year.
A breakdown of the index showed that food inflation moderated to 12.12 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, down by 14.86 percentage points from 26.98 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose sharply to 4.69 per cent from -6.02 per cent in January, driven by increases in the prices of key staples such as beans, cassava tubers, yam flour, millet flour, crayfish and other food items.
Other components of the index also contributed to overall price movements, with restaurants and accommodation rising by 1.95 per cent, transportation by 1.61 per cent, and housing utilities by 1.27 per cent during the month.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, declined to 15.88 per cent year-on-year in February 2026 from 25.66 per cent recorded in January 2025, reflecting a 9.78 percentage-point drop. Every month, core inflation increased to 0.89 per cent from -1.69 per cent in January 2026, indicating mild underlying pressures across non-food components.
Despite the continued easing in annual inflation, the analysts maintained that short-term pressures persist, with headline inflation expected to rise modestly to 15.24 per cent in March 2026.
