The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has marginally revised its global growth outlook for 2026 upward, while warning that economic momentum remains uneven across regions and subject to policy and geopolitical risks.

In an update to its World Economic Outlook released in Washington on Monday, the IMF said global output is now expected to grow by 3.3 per cent in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point increase from its October forecast. Growth in 2027 is projected at 3.2 per cent, unchanged from the previous estimate.

The revised figures reflect modest improvements in both advanced and emerging economies, although the Fund noted that inflationary pressures and divergent national performances continue to shape the recovery path.

Advanced economies as a group are forecast to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2026, up 0.2 percentage points, before easing slightly to 1.7 per cent in 2027. The United States is projected to expand by 2.4 per cent in 2026, an upward revision of 0.3 points, before growth moderates to 2.0 per cent in 2027. The IMF trimmed its 2027 outlook for the US by 0.1 percentage point.

In the euro area, growth is expected to reach 1.3 per cent in 2026, marginally higher than earlier projections, and 1.4 per cent in 2027. Germany’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent the following year, while France is expected to record growth of 1.0 per cent in 2026 and 1.2 per cent in 2027. Italy’s outlook was revised slightly downward for 2026 to 0.7 per cent, with a modest improvement to the same rate in 2027. Spain stands out among major euro area economies, with growth projected at 2.3 per cent in 2026 and 1.9 per cent in 2027.

Britain’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027, both unchanged from the previous outlook. Japan is expected to record growth of 0.7 per cent in 2026 before slowing to 0.6 per cent in 2027, while Canada’s growth is projected at 1.6 per cent in 2026 and 1.9 per cent in 2027.

Emerging and developing economies are forecast to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026, up 0.2 percentage points, before easing to 4.1 per cent in 2027. China’s economy is expected to expand by 4.5 per cent in 2026, an upward revision of 0.3 points, before slowing to 4.0 per cent in 2027. India’s growth outlook remains unchanged, with the IMF projecting 6.4 per cent growth in both years.

Russia’s economy is forecast to grow by 0.8 per cent in 2026, down 0.2 points from earlier estimates, and 1.0 per cent in 2027. In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is expected to reach 2.2 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027. Brazil’s outlook was revised downward for 2026 to 1.6 per cent, with a recovery to 2.3 per cent in 2027, while Mexico is projected to grow by 1.5 per cent in 2026 and 2.1 per cent in 2027.

The Middle East and Central Asia region is forecast to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2026 and 4.0 per cent in 2027. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to record growth of 4.6 per cent in both years, with South Africa expected to expand by 1.4 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027.

On prices, the IMF said global inflation is projected at 3.8 per cent in 2026, slightly higher than previously forecast, before easing to 3.4 per cent in 2027. The Fund noted that while inflation continues to moderate globally, progress remains uneven, underscoring the need for careful policy calibration to support growth without reigniting price pressures.